NIPC Data Research and Forecasting Group

The Data Research and Forecasting group is responsible for creating authoritative forecasts of population, employment, and other growth indicators for northeastern Illinois.  This essential NIPC function is mandated in the State of Illinois legislation that created the Commission in 1957.   See the latest regional Maps and Data Tables or read more about the NIPC data research capabilities.

Via an Interagency Agreement with the Illinois Department of Transportation (IDOT), the Regional Transportation Authority (RTA), and the Chicago Area Transportation Study (CATS), the Data Research and Forecasting group provides socio-economic forecasts by quarter-section geography for use by CATS in developing the Regional Transportation Plan (RTP), which guides critical decisions and investments.

The group also fills the following regional roles:

• Provides population, household, and employment forecasts by municipality, township, and county

• Provides and interprets demographic data for the region, creating the tools for business, government, and the public to conduct planning, research, and development

• Provides decennial census population and housing numbers, interprets data for the five-year “economic census” series, and consults on modeling and analysis of those data
   

More About NIPC Data Research

NIPC analyzes and distributes data on population, housing, employment, income, development activity and other aspects of the region from the U.S. Census and other sources.  The agency also prepares forecasts of population, households and employment for the region and for counties, municipalities, and user-defined geographies.  NIPC also provides the six-county region’s definitive population and employment forecasts.  Mapping with Geographic Information System (GIS) technology is a specialty of NIPC, as is the development of interactive Web services for housing, economic development, census data and other on-demand information requests. 

Official Regional Forecasts.  Under a Memorandum of Agreement with the Illinois Department of Commerce and Economic Opportunity (DCEO), NIPC prepares the official forecasts of population, households, and employment for the six-county region.  The central objective is to project the total number of residents and jobs for the region, indicating a distribution of these people and activities that is the most likely to occur given market forces and expected implementation of public policy.  NIPC conducts technical analysis of demographic trends, examines development activity in the region, and consults intensively with local officials concerning their plans and expectations for future growth. The forecasts are used by decision makers to support a variety of policies concerning transportation, air quality, water allocation, and water quality.

The Interagency Agreement described above under "Partnerships and Collaborations" also specifies NIPC's role in transportation planning.  It gives NIPC the authority to create small-area, long-term population, housing, and job forecasts that are required by the transportation planning processes. These forecasts are recognized by these agencies and the transportation planning committee as the official forecasts for the region and are used within the transportation planning process.

NIPC therefore is the only body authorized to create regionwide forecasts for northeastern Illinois that are officially recognized by the State of Illinois for program use.  NIPC forecasts are consistent with the Commission's expectation that public policy and investment will increase emphasis on the maintenance of existing communities, revitalization of declining areas, and cost-effective and environmentally-sensitive development throughout northeastern Illinois.  During each three-year forecast cycle, NIPC’s researchers meet with leadership in the region's 272 municipalities to discuss forecast assumptions and possible forecast alternatives.

NIPC's Data Research and Forecast group developed award-winning software called “Paint the Town” and "Paint the Region" to automate the collection of local information and the production of reliable local population and job forecasts for the region. Based on GIS technology, the tool lets local participants “paint” (with a stylus on a computer screen) areas of expected new growth or redevelopment, specify the type and density of land use, and calculate the resulting change in population and employment – all in a single work session.  These varying inputs are then compiled and reconciled with NIPC’s regional forecasts to provide user-friendly access to data for transportation planning and other uses. 

Census Data Services.  NIPC’s research team provides a number of products that add value to data from the U.S. Census.  General demographic profiles are available for each of the region's counties, townships and municipalities.  Each profile summarizes data from the short- and long-form 2000 Census questionnaires on population (e.g. age, race, sex, employment status, educational attainment, migrant status) and housing (e.g. ownership and tenure, age of structure, number of units, facilities, value and monthly costs).  More detailed 60-page Census 2000 profiles are available as well..  NIPC also compiles selected census results in printed data bulletins, with topical maps and tables that present complex statistics in an easily digestible format to help local planning officials and citizens better understand how their areas relate to the region as a whole.

Growth Monitoring. NIPC’s growth monitoring program provides accurate and useful data, at the quarter section level, to the forecast program, other NIPC departments, our governmental partners, and the general public. NIPC staff prepares small area (quarter section) employment estimates every 5 years, and housing unit estimates yearly. Primarily used as base data for NIPC’s long range forecasting, the employment and housing estimates are also used by transportation agencies and researchers. The NIPC Development Database (NDD), established in 1987, tracks all significant development and redevelopment in northeastern Illinois. The database contains information on over 10,000 developments across the region. Through our Municipal Link program, municipalities can gain password protected access to the database, allowing them to edit and update data. NDD can be viewed online at http://www.nipc.org/ndd.  In addition, NIPC publishes data bulletins on regional growth.

GIS.  NIPC has led the development of geographic information system (GIS) tools for planning.  Extensive databases of land use, natural resource, Census, and other information are maintained in GIS form.  NIPC’s GIS capabilities benefit virtually all its projects, such as assessing highway and transit projects’ impact on natural resources, mapping and modeling of wetlands, and predicting growth patterns within communities and the region as a whole.  In particular, NIPC is a leader in developing GIS metadata – which facilitates the sharing of information across multiple, diverse datasets -- and provides GIS training and database-development assistance to local governments and other civic organizations.

Metadata Services.  NIPC offers unique metadata services throughout the region. Service to both the public and private sectors is delivered by talented staff recognized as leaders in metadata. NIPC can provide:

• Raster digital data (satellite imagery, orthoimagery)
• Vector digital data (shapefiles, coverages and geodatabases)
• Tabular digital data