Northeastern Illinois Will Continue to Grow

The Chicago region can expect continued steady growth over the next three decades. The population of the six-county northeastern Illinois area will be close to 10 million by the year 2030. This preliminary forecast was recently presented by the research staff of the Northeastern Illinois Planning Commission (NIPC) to the agency's Planning Committee.

The new forecast adjusts NIPC's current endorsed forecast of 9,045,000 people in the year 2020 to a higher figure of 9,229,000. This new 2020 figure represents 14 percent growth over the region's 2000 population of 8,091,720. Between 2020 and 2030, it is also projected that an additional 599,000 people will be added to the region's population, bringing the total to 9,828,000. (See the table and diagrams below for details).

NIPC will prepare detailed forecasts for counties and municipalities, based on the new regional total, over the next six months. After extensive review by technical experts and local officials, the forecasts will be endorsed by the Commission in late 2003.

Two strong trends in the composition of the population will continue, with implications for transportation, the housing market, social services, and schools. First, the region's population will be older. The percentage of the population over 60 will increase substantially by 2030 as the youngest Baby Boomers reach retirement age.

Second, the population will be more diverse racially and ethnically. By 2030 the Hispanic population, currently the fastest-growing segment, will constitute one third of the region's residents. While Hispanics will continue to migrate into the region, most of the forecast growth will result from natural increase (births in excess of deaths). The African-American population will also continue to grow in absolute numbers, but will decrease slightly as a percentage of the population. The Non-Hispanic White/Other group (which includes the Asian population) will constitute less than half of the region's people in 2030.

Employment in the six counties will keep pace with the population. Jobs will increase from 4,420,000 in 2000 to 5,556,000 in 2030. In that year, the region's resident labor force will be only 4,963,000. A significant portion of the difference between jobs and resident workers represents jobs in the region held by commuters from other Illinois counties, Wisconsin, or Indiana.

NIPC's forecasts are used in a variety of ways. They form an important basis for the Regional Transportation Plan, now being prepared by the Chicago Area Transportation Study (CATS). They are also used by state agencies which allocate Lake Michigan water and approve sewage treatment system expansions, and by counties and municipalities in preparing their own comprehensive plans. The final forecasts and the transportation plan will be completed and approved in the fall of 2003.

The Northeastern Illinois Planning Commission is the comprehensive planning agency for the six-county metropolitan area. In addition to planning, the agency provides technical and research assistance and reviews state and federal grant requests for local governments.