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Northeastern Illinois’s Population to Surpass 10 Million by 2030;
 1.2 Million new jobs

Will County Likely to Become Most Populous Collar County;
Growth in Chicago as Well as the Region’s Outer Ring

CHICAGO, February 5, 2004 -- The NIPC Board of Commissioners recently endorsed the agency’s 2030 population, households, and employment forecasts, which anticipate continuing growth in the six-county metropolitan area over the next three decades.  Population is predicted to increase by nearly two million from 2000 to 2030, reaching a total of slightly over 10 million people.  With the notable exception of the city of Chicago, the municipalities predicted to gain the most population are now located 30 or more miles from downtown Chicago.  As a result, it is likely that by 2030 the combined population of these outer-ring suburbs will be greater than that for either the inner-ring (less than 15 miles) or middle-ring (15-29 miles) suburbs. 

NIPC's forecasts are used in several ways. They form an important basis for the 2030 Regional Transportation Plan prepared by the Chicago Area Transportation Study (CATS). They are also used by state agencies that allocate Lake Michigan water and approve sewage treatment system expansions, and by counties and municipalities in preparing their own comprehensive plans for the future.

The six counties of northeastern Illinois are Cook, DuPage, Kane, Lake, McHenry, and Will.

Meanwhile, the number of jobs in northeastern Illinois will grow by 1.2 million, approximately equal to the growth in the previous 30-year period.  Employment in the six counties will increase from 4.4 million in 2000 to 5.6 million in 2030. By then, a significant portion of the jobs in the region will be filled by commuters from other Illinois counties, Wisconsin, or Indiana, oftentimes traveling to new jobs located well away from downtown Chicago.

Two present trends in the composition of the population will continue. Much of the region's population will be older. In fact, the number of persons 65 years or older will nearly double by 2030 as almost all so-called “baby boomers” reach retirement age.
 

Second, the population will be more diverse racially and ethnically. By 2030 the Hispanic population, currently the fastest-growing segment, will constitute one- third of the region's residents. While Hispanics will continue to migrate into the region, most of their forecasted growth will result from natural increase (births in excess of deaths). The African-American population will also continue to grow in absolute numbers, but will decrease slightly as a percentage of the population. The Non-Hispanic White/Other group (which includes the Asian population) will constitute less than half of the region's people in 2030.

In addition to the major demographic shifts that are implicit in the new forecasts, significant impacts are expected to occur geographically around northeastern Illinois.  Our region’s ring of growth, already at a radius 30 miles or so from downtown Chicago, will continue advancing ever outward even as Chicago itself continues to grow.
 

All the other counties in the region will realize significant growth, including Cook County.  In essence, Lake County will come close in size to where DuPage County is today, Kane County will arrive at where Lake County currently is, and McHenry County, approaching a half million in population, will become today’s Kane County. 

On the employment side, the forecast is promising for places like Elgin, Aurora, and Joliet, all hit by a declining manufacturing base.  New jobs springing up in the triangle cornered by the cities of Aurora, Naperville, and Joliet should serve as a magnet for residents moving into both Kane and Will Counties.  And such traditional regional job centers as Chicago, Schaumburg, Northbrook, and Downers Grove will be augmented by newer ones springing up in West Chicago, Glenview, Sugar Grove, and New Lenox. 

The 2030 forecasts also predict that not all places in northeastern Illinois will fare equally as well.  The forecast shows 37 municipalities are projected to lose population, all but two located in land-locked suburban Cook County.  And despite forecasted increases in both people and jobs, the city of Chicago will hold less than one-third of the region’s population and employment in 2030, down from 60% of all jobs and 48% of all population in 1970.

For all the results, please see the Commission-endorsed 2030 forecast numbers for Northeastern Illinois.

STUDY METHODOLOGY:

The Northeastern Illinois Planning Commission (NIPC), through agreements with the State of Illinois and the transportation planning community in the six-county northeastern Illinois area, is responsible for the development of long range population, household and employment forecasts in support of the Regional Transportation Plan. Updated every three years, these forecasts are intended to portray a most likely future given market forces and the impacts of expected public policy.

There were three steps in the development of the forecasts. The first was the generation of region wide totals for population, households and employment. The employment forecast was derived from results prepared by the Regional Economics Application Laboratory in the spring of 2002. The Laboratory operates as a collaboration between the University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign and the Chicago Federal Reserve Bank. Population results were generated with migration assumptions derived from the employment forecast.

The second step was the compilation of expected local land use patterns through meetings with local governments. Supported by an interactive mapping tool, called Paint the Town, NIPC staff attempted to meet with each of the region's 272 municipalities to determine 2030 municipal boundaries and expected land development and redevelopment within each jurisdiction. 211 communities, representing 94 percent of the region's current population, participated in the process. Preliminary forecast totals for the remaining 61 municipalities were developed from prior forecasts and forecasted boundaries adjusted to account for acres sought by adjacent participating municipalities. Forecasts for unincorporated areas were derived with a similar approach unless specific guidance was provided by a county. 

The final steps included adjustment for overlapping jurisdictions, translation of land use results to transportation zones, and reconciliation to the regional totals produced in step 1. In most cases where 2030 boundaries overlapped across substantial areas, the overlap was split with each of the overlapping communities assigned a share. In cases where the overlaps were small, the area was designated to remain unincorporated. Reconciliation to the regional totals was straightforward for population since the sum of all requests barely exceeded the independently derived regional total. Requested employment growth, however, was double the growth forecast for the region as a whole. Adjustments were determined by application of employment allocation shares from model runs used in the development of prior employment forecasts.