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northeastern illinois planning commission |
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northeastern illinois planning commission |
As endorsed by the Northeastern Illinois
Planning Commission on Sept. 27, 2000
The central objective of NIPC's forecast program is to produce a forecast of the total number of people and jobs for the region and a distribution of these activities that is the most likely. In generating such forecasts, the Commission believes that the actual future levels and distribution of population and jobs will be the result not only of countless private sector decisions but also important government policy and investment actions. The forecasts are used to support a variety of policy decisions and play a pivotal role in decisions concerning transportation, air quality, water allocation, and water quality. The current forecasts do not suggest a continuation of past de-centralized development patterns. Instead, they are consistent with the Commission's expectation that public policy and investment will give increased emphasis to the maintenance of existing communities, revitalization of declining areas, and cost-effective and environmentally-sensitive development throughout northeastern Illinois. Data from the 2000 Census were not available for use in the forecast update process. Consequently, the revision process sought only to uncover the compelling reasons that would justify an adjustment to the 2020 forecasts endorsed by the Commission in November 1997. Following publication of data from the 2000 Census, NIPC will generate new forecasts out to the year 2030 for the six county region.
For the six county area as a whole, the forecasted increase of population and jobs for the 1990 to 2020 span is 1.78 million (to 9,045,000) and 1.43 million (to 5,280,000), respectively. These increases represent a 25% gain in population and a 37% growth in jobs over the 1990 base year totals. The revised 2020 forecasts of population and total number of jobs for the six-county region are identical to those endorsed by the Commission in late 1997, and all current evidence continues to support those previous forecasts. The revised forecasts of households, however, are slightly lower. This trend reflects, at least temporarily, a halt in the declines in household size observed in the 1970s and 1980s. Revisions were also made to the forecasts of jobs by categories for the region as whole to acknowledge the slowing growth in retail and accelerating growth in the service industries. Within the region, the revised 2020 population forecasts differ from the 1997 endorsed forecasts in that they are slightly higher for Cook, Kane and Will counties and slightly lower for Lake and McHenry counties. The changes, for the most part, reflect the stabilization of household size in Cook County, accelerating growth in Kane and Will counties, and revised expectations among some local officials in Lake and McHenry counties. The employment forecasts were adjusted downward in Cook County and upward in Kane, Lake, McHenry and Will counties. These adjustments were made to accommodate the changing patterns of employment growth and land development activity since 1990. The population and job forecasts for DuPage County as a whole remain unchanged from the previous forecasts. The revised 2020 forecasts indicate that the largest numerical gains in population will occur in Cook and Will counties. Will and McHenry counties will experience the largest percentage gains in population. Gains in the number of jobs, in spite of the downward adjustment, will still be largest in Cook County. The next highest numerical gains will be found in DuPage and Lake counties. At the municipal level, adjustments to the prior forecasts were made only after careful consideration of critical factors that would indicate a revision was necessary. These factors included post-1996 growth experience, changes in assumptions concerning future municipal boundaries, changes in local official expectations, and the correction of errors in the application of assumptions used in the prior forecasts. Preliminary revised municipal forecasts were sent to the 270 municipalities in January 2000 for review. Over 90 communities participated in review discussions. In the 1997 forecast round, over 200 communities participated. Most of those earlier inputs were reviewed in preparation of the recommended forecasts. Communities with the largest upward adjustment in their previous population forecasts include Joliet, Tinley Park, Orland Park, Plainfield, Round Lake Beach, Johnsburg, Bolingbrook, Des Plaines, Lake in the Hills, and Channahon.
Click here for a second table showing the forecasts by political township
Last Updated October 2, 2003
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