The Northeastern Illinois Planning Commission (NIPC) will continue to plan on the basis of its forecast that the six-county area will be home to 9 million people and the place of employment for 5.3 million workers in 2020. On December 16, the Commission received a report from its Planning Committee on the status of the forecasts. The committee's assessment, based on information from the NIPC staff and its Forecast Technical Advisory Committee, was that data on population and employment change since 1990 support the growth rates assumed in the forecasts. The committee agreed that the staff should now proceed to develop updated county and municipal forecasts based on those regional totals. These will be used in planning for future transportation, water supply, and other needed facilities and services.

In March 1994, the Commission concluded that the region would grow by 1.7 million people, or 25 percent, and by 1.5 million jobs, or 37 percent, from 1990 to 2020. These forecasts were subsequently broken down to the county and municipal levels and were endorsed by the Commission. They formed the demographic basis for the Regional Transportation Plan adopted in November 1997. They are also being used by the Illinois Department of Natural Resources in determining the future allocation of Lake Michigan water.

Planning is about the future. The forecasting function, which NIPC performs for the region, is central to any consideration of the region's future. The governments and citizens of northeastern Illinois are engaged in an extensive discussion on how we can continue to grow while assuring a high quality of life to all our citizens. This discussion must be grounded in realistic assumptions about how the region is likely to grow and what our probable range of choice about that growth is.

Our future opportunities and challenges will differ greatly if we assume that our population will grow slowly, as it did between 1970 and 1990, or more rapidly, as it has since 1990. They will also vary in response to decisions on such matters as preservation of open space and the location of aviation capacity, since these will shape where people choose to live and work. Such policy choices must be accounted for in the allocation of the forecasts across the region.

The intent of NIPC's forecasting is to determine what is most likely to happen in the region. It does this by combining demographic and employment analysis, evaluation of policy alternatives, and consultation with local officials about their plans and expectations. Development of the 1994 regional totals began with an analysis of national economic trends and of various estimates of northeastern Illinois' likely share of future national employment growth. Based on this analysis, a forecast of future total employment was prepared. Information on labor force participation was then combined with analyses of birth and death rates and migration patterns to arrive at a forecast of future total population.

These regional totals were then allocated to smaller areas. The allocation was developed using information from the most recent census, NIPC's Regional Development Database, and other information on actual growth since the last forecast. Computer modeling of the relationship between land use and transportation was also used. In a departure from prior forecast cycles, alternative sets of small-area forecasts were prepared to reflect different sets of policy assumptions about future surface transportation capacity and the location of future airport capacity. Preliminary municipal forecasts were discussed with elected and appointed officials of 207 of the region's 270 cities and villages. The purpose of these consultations was to assure that their plans and growth expectations were reflected in the forecasts.

Because the major issue of future aviation facilities had not been resolved, two sets of county and municipal forecasts were endorsed. One assumed that the region would continue to be served by O'Hare and Midway, while the other assumed the addition of a south suburban airport.

When the forecasts were released in 1994, there was doubt expressed in some quarters about their validity. The region's population had grown by only four percent between 1970 and 1990, leading some to conclude that the new figures were unreasonably high. The Commission, however, was confident in its conclusion based on its methodology and on its success since 1980 in producing forecasts which have tracked the region's actual growth closely. Population and employment estimates available in 1998 tended to confirm the higher rate of growth.

The Census Bureau's 1998 estimates also confirmed NIPC's forecast that population growth would occur in all parts of the region. The Bureau found that between 1990 and 1998, McHenry County grew by 31.5 percent, gaining 57,704 people. Will County, which NIPC projects to be the fastest-growing county in the next twenty years, gained 28.5 percent. Other county increases were Kane, 23.2 percent; Lake, 17.2 percent; DuPage, 12.6 percent ; and Cook, 1.7 percent. Chicago grew by 18,353 or just under one percent, reversing a long-term pattern of population loss. While 60 suburbs lost population between 1990 and 1998, this was considerably fewer than the ninety which had declined in the previous decade.

The next step in the current forecast cycle will be to review the municipal forecasts and identify those communities where an adjustment of the 1997 forecasts may be warranted. This will involve an assessment of population and job growth, annexations, and land use changes since 1990. It will also involve a reassessment of travel costs and of land holding capacity. It is likely that a small number of municipalities will require revisions. As in the past, NIPC will send proposed forecast revisions to these communities and offer an opportunity to discuss them prior to final NIPC action. The Commission expects to complete the forecast revisions and transmit them to the Chicago Area Transportation Study (CATS) in May 2000.

In the current cycle, the Commission is not revisiting its forecasts of the future population's age, race, and Spanish origin. The Commission forecast in 1997 that two-thirds of population growth from 1990 to 2020 will be Hispanic. The six-county area's Hispanic population in 2020 will approach two million, making us one of the major multinational metropolitan areas in the country. The remaining one-third of the region's new residents will be largely non-Hispanic African-American. The population of Asian origin will also grow substantially in percentage terms, although its absolute number will remain relatively small. These changes have potentially major implications for residential patterns and public service demands. These components of the forecasts will be reexamined after data from the 2000 census become available.

Another significant characteristic of the future population will be its age. In 1990, the baby boom generation ranged in age from 26 to 44 and formed the core of the labor force. As this group ages, the proportion of the region's population over 45 will increase significantly. At the same time, the school-age population will grow steadily due to overall population growth, the higher birth rates of a growing minority population, and the number of the baby boomers' grandchildren. These shifts in the age structure will have major implications for education and other public services and for the types of residential choices demanded by the market. One function of the Commission's forecasts is to enable local governments and service providers to anticipate these demands and begin to prepare for them.