Endorsed by the Commission June 30, 1998

The Northeastern Illinois Planning Commission has initiated a three-year project to develop and advocate a Regional Growth Strategy for northeastern Illinois. The Commission's broad goal in undertaking the project is to see the region achieve, over the next two decades, continued improvement in the quality and sustainability of its development. The Strategy is intended to contribute to forming a region which is

• equitable, with access for all to the cultural, social, and economic resources of the region
• competitive, maintaining or increasing its share of national economic growth and providing expanded economic opportunities in all parts of the region
• livable, with enhanced quality of personal and community life
• sustainable, with balanced development patterns responsive to the limitations of the region's natural resources and the need to preserve and improve environmental quality for our time and for future generations
• cooperative, with increasing emphasis on intergovernmental cooperation and public-private partnership in the guidance of the region's growth

Attainment of the Strategy's goals requires the pursuit of three objectives: (1) renewed growth and investment in those areas which have experienced population and/or employment losses in recent decades; (2) continued growth and investment in those built-up areas in which growth is leveling off and which could face future losses; and (3) cost-effective public investment and high standards of environmental protection in conjunction with new development or redevelopment.

Progress toward these objectives will be measured in two ways. The first will be the overall consistency of the region's pattern of growth with the Commission's 2020 forecasts of population and employment, particularly as they indicate renewed growth in many older areas. The second will be the levels of environmental protection, transportation efficiency, preservation of public investment, and balanced land use achieved in conjunction with new development and redevelopment.

The Commission's decision to develop a Regional Growth Strategy is a response to forecasts of substantial new growth between now and 2020. In the next quarter-century, the six-county area is expected to increase in population by 25 percent, to slightly over 9 million people, and by 37 percent increase in employment, to 5.3 million jobs. The challenge facing the region is how to accommodate that growth in such ways that its benefits are broadly distributed and sustainable into the future.

Attainment of those objectives will not occur without deliberate public policy action. That action must emphasize incentives for balanced growth rather than restrictions on locational preferences expressed in the market. The Commission's intent is to work with local governments and other regional interests to forge a consensus on policy actions likely to influence the shape and quality of the region's development. The Commission will also work with these partners to develop an informed and engaged public.

The following paragraphs describe the effects of past growth, the challenge of projected higher growth, the necessity of policies for growth management, and the importance of a partnership process for developing the Regional Growth Strategy.

The Effects of Past Growth

The 2020 forecasts suggest a rate and pattern of growth markedly different from what we experienced between 1970 and 1990. During those two decades, the population of northeastern Illinois increased by only 4 percent, from 6.98 million to 7.26 million people. While overall growth was thus moderate, its impacts were substantial because of the way the growth was distributed. The population of the growing suburban areas increased by 24 percent or almost 1 million, while the City of Chicago and eighty-nine suburban cities and villages lost a total of about 770 thousand people. The pattern of employment changed in a similar way. The region's overall employment growth of 21 percent, or about 660 thousand jobs, reflected a combination of job losses in the central city and mature suburbs and rapid job growth in some newer suburban areas. Suburban population and employment declines were particularly concentrated in south and west Cook County.

These demographic changes were accompanied by substantial changes in the use of land. Between 1970 and 1990, while the region's population increased by only 4 percent and employment grew by 21 percent, the amount of land in urban uses increased by over 33 percent. Over 450 square miles of agricultural and vacant land were converted to residential and employment uses, streets, and public buildings. This high rate of land consumption reflected the generally larger lot sizes which have characterized residential, commercial, and industrial development and redevelopment throughout the region. It also reflected a high rate (20 percent) of household formation relative to population increase as household sizes declined. Still, the overall pattern was one of a few more people occupying a lot more land.

What many developing areas experienced as explosive growth was thus fueled by a steady migration of population and employment from the region's older communities. This migration was motivated by a number of factors, including land availability and cost, the desire for open surroundings and low densities, perceived issues of educational quality and public safety, and the attraction of existing suburban markets, labor forces, and employment. As people and jobs moved outward they took with them incomes, purchasing power, and tax dollars. In this process, many of the region's citizens and businesses experienced rising incomes and broadened residential, employment, recreational and market opportunities.

However, this development pattern also had a number of unintended and undesirable consequences. Many workers in older communities found their jobs moving away from them into areas which they could not easily reach by public transportation and where housing which they could afford was not readily available. Communities which had lost population and jobs were still required to meet needs for public services, but with shrinking tax bases. At the same time, public finances in growing communities were stretched to provide infrastructure and services to new residents and employers. Increasing levels of traffic congestion were one pervasive symptom of this situation. There were also undesirable environmental impacts as development consumed agricultural land, threatened wetlands and other sensitive areas, and aggravated flooding and water quality problems.

Recent information suggests that this pattern of growth is continuing. Census Bureau estimates indicate that the region's population has increased by as much since 1990 as it had in the preceding twenty years. The City of Chicago and sixty-five communities, most of them in the inner ring of suburbs, have lost population since 1990. In most cases, the rates of population loss have slowed as declines in household size have leveled off. The rate of residential and commercial redevelopment, however, has been substantial in some parts of Chicago.

The Challenge of Higher Growth

The Commission believes that the higher growth rates forecast for the next two decades make the combination of disinvestment and rapid decentralization unsustainable for the region. Serving an increasingly dispersed population while sustaining the social and economic fabric of established communities will require substantial levels of public investment at a time when the maintenance of existing investment is becoming more difficult. The effects on air, land, and water quality implicit in this growth pattern are potentially severe. Both economic and environmental factors thus threaten the overall quality of life in northeastern Illinois. Failure to address traffic delays, jobs-housing mismatches, and the costs of disinvestment will pose risks to the region's economic competitiveness. While not unduly limiting the locational choices which households and businesses make in the marketplace, the region must seek ways to preserve both the natural and the built resources it already has and to encourage new growth to take more sustainable forms. The Regional Growth Strategy is intended to contribute to that effort.

The new forecasts point toward a moderation of recent growth trends. The most significant fact about the forecasts is that they show every sector of the region - the city of Chicago, subareas of Cook County, and the five outer counties - growing in population, households, and employment. These changes will occur in the context of a general aging of the labor force, a growing school-age population, and substantial increases in the region's minority population.

How these new people and jobs are distributed will depend in part on decisions as to how future demand for air service is met. The Commission has endorsed alternative forecasts reflecting (1) continued dependence on improved existing airports and (2) the development of a new south suburban airport. The challenges of growth for the region as a whole will be similar under either airport scenario, though their occurrence in particular areas will vary. The findings and policies set out in this statement are thus intended to be applicable to either alternative.

The highest rate of growth will continue to occur at the urban/rural fringe. Will County's population is forecast to increase by between 102 and 125 percent, depending on whether or not a new south suburban airport is developed, while its employment will increase between 124 and 234 percent depending on the airport scenario implemented. The population of McHenry County will increase by more than 90 percent under either air service alternative, and jobs will increase between 35 percent (with the new airport) and 62 percent (with the existing facilities). Kane and Lake counties will also experience population growth in excess of 50 percent, and employment increases of the same magnitude. Meanwhile, Chicago's population will increase between 5 and 7 percent, and its employment will grow between 15 and 17 percent. The forecasts thus suggest a region moving toward a more balanced distribution of growth between older and newer communities, in contrast to the trend of recent decades.

As was noted above, mid-decade Census estimates of population and NIPC's employment estimates indicate that overall growth consistent with the forecasts is occurring. The technical and consultative process by which the forecasts were developed was intended to assure that the forecasts for sectors of the region are also realistic. The computer model which was used is designed to emulate the working of the market as it responds to transportation accessibility and the relative attractiveness of various uses. Seventy percent of the region's municipalities provided NIPC staff with detailed information on their planning objectives and on anticipated future development. Participants in several region-wide workshops furnished guidance on desirable growth patterns and the feasibility of various growth management strategies. This multi-faceted approach increases our confidence that the achievement of the forecasts is feasible.

In preparing the forecasts, NIPC examined the effect of additions to the regional highway and rail networks included in the 2020 Regional Transportation Plan. These were compared to dependence on only the existing and committed transportation system. With respect to employment, the planned transportation improvements would make a modest contribution to moderating decentralization in the region between now and 2020. Current concentrations of employment such as the Lake-Cook Road and Woodfield areas would add new employment at a slightly higher rate than they would if only the existing surface transportation system were relied upon. The analysis suggests that the planned highway and commuter rail improvements would make it easier for employers to access their workers, suppliers, and markets from existing locations and would thus diminish the incentives to relocate further out in the region.

With respect to residential growth, on the other hand, the planned transportation improvements seem likely to have a slight decentralizing effect. In areas now on the residential growing edge of the region, population growth rates would be slightly higher with the added ground transportation than with only the existing network. In the already built-up portions of the region, the reverse would be true. These findings suggest that the addition of both highway and rail capacity serving the outer parts of the region will enable households to continue to move outward - the prevalent market pattern in the postwar era - while commuting to the job-rich regional core and middle-ring suburbs. If jobs continue to agglomerate in these existing areas, further residential decentralization after 2020 may be constrained.

Policies for Growth Management

The Commission recognizes the necessity of positive public action to achieve the balanced growth reflected in the forecasts. These actions must provide incentives for maintenance and reinforcement of the region's established communities rather than attempting to restrict locational choices expressed through the market. They must encourage two priority areas of development: (1) renewed growth and investment in those areas which have experienced population and/or employment losses in recent decades, combined with continued growth and investment in those built-up areas in which growth is leveling off and which could face future losses; and (2) cost-effective public investment and high standards of environmental protection in conjunction with new development or redevelopment.

Renewed growth and investment in disinvested areas and continuing investment in maturing areas

The outward movement of households and jobs has left in its wake substantial abandoned or underused residential and industrial property and civic infrastructure, and populations increasingly isolated from employment and other opportunities. Local governments must maintain these human and physical resources on a declining tax base while the return on past public investment declines. These conditions impact not only community areas within Chicago but also a growing number of older suburban communities. Many of these do not have the downtown economic strength to offset the decline of their neighborhoods. Some areas of disinvestment also persist in otherwise stable or growing communities. It is not in the region's overall interest to perpetuate these conditions. Because the forecasts indicate the most dramatic reversal of trends in these areas, this may be the most difficult of the Growth Strategy's objectives to achieve.

Other parts of the region whose recent high growth rates are moderating can still absorb substantial new population and employment growth on undeveloped or underdeveloped land. These areas, which encompass major parts of all six counties, represent substantial public and private investment in transportation, other public services and community amenities, and employment opportunities. It is in the region's interest to maintain and enhance that investment. A continuation of past trends, however, is likely to lead toward eventual losses in population, employment, and tax base.

The Regional Growth Strategy must include policy tools to support or encourage the following conditions. The Commission affirms the importance of these areas to achieving balanced, sustainable development in the region. We recognize that certain of these tools do not fall within NIPC's traditional areas of interest or expertise.

• attainment of high levels of educational quality, public safety, and racial diversity
• improved transportation between existing housing and job centers
• reclamation and reuse of abandoned or contaminated property for employment and residential use
• financial assistance for infrastructure to support redevelopment, infill and contiguous development
• maintenance and improvement of the existing highway and public transportation system
• a property tax system which supports balanced, sustainable development

The Commission will consider its appropriate role in preparing policy recommendations in these areas. It will also make its expertise and information resources available to other regional organizations developing policy recommendations in these areas and will consider endorsement of those recommendations as components of the Regional Growth Strategy.

Cost-effective public investment and high standards of environmental protection in conjunction with new development or redevelopment

A substantial amount of the region's population and employment growth will be accommodated by new development through the conversion of agricultural and vacant land in the outer counties. Two paramount considerations must govern that development. The first is that new growth should be oriented to existing communities in order to make use of their established physical, economic, and social infrastructure and to minimize uncoordinated or piecemeal extension of services. The second is that new growth should meet, at both the community and site levels, development standards which will (1) minimize adverse impacts on nearby communities and the natural environment and (2) make cost-effective use of infrastructure investments. Development should be avoided in areas where environmental resources cannot otherwise be protected. High standards of environmental protection should, of course, be applied as well in the stabilization or redevelopment of established communities.

Policy actions will be necessary to accomplish, among others, the following objectives:

• implementation of the Regional Greenways Plan
• application of site design standards to achieve cost effective, environmentally friendly, and sustainable development
• preservation of adequate open space in new development and redevelopment areas
• protection and restoration of woodlands, wetlands and floodplains
• effective stormwater management in all parts of the region
• protection of rights-of-way for adopted transportation projects
• intergovernmental cooperation in transportation project planning and implementation

Partnership for Growth Management

The region's future shape and quality will be determined by the decisions of hundreds of public agencies and hundreds of thousands of households and businesses. The Commission's approach in the Regional Growth Strategy project, as in all its work, is to identify and advocate means by which those independent actions can support and reinforce each other. The selection and development of the preferred policy tools will be done in a collaborative process with governmental, private sector, civic and other interests. The intended product is an agreed package of recommendations benefiting and supported by all sectors of the region.

The Commission will collaborate in this with a broadly representative advisory structure. At the center of this structure is an Areawide Advisory Committee of senior government professionals. They represent jurisdictions chosen to reflect the range of local governments' responsibilities and viewpoints in the six-county area. The committee's task is to work with the Commission's staff in identifying and analyzing policy tools, assessing their probable contribution to the goals of the Growth Strategy, and determining the steps needed to implement them. The advisory committee will be augmented by a larger circle of governmental, business, and civic advisors which will comment on major work products and recommendations as the project proceeds. Some of these individuals were selected by Commissioners as persons whose advice they would seek on growth management issues. Others represent diverse organizations with interests in issues of equity and sustainability.

Finally, the Commission will proceed in partnership with other organizations whose interests and agendas are regional in scope. At no time in recent years have as many different organizations throughout the region been examining issues of regional growth through their own particular policy lenses. The Commission's focus is primarily on recommendations to state and local governments, which are its principal constituency. However, its intent is to support and draw from other regional efforts such as the Campaign for Sensible Growth and the Commercial Club's Metropolis Project as it prepares a recommended strategy. It will, in turn, provide assistance to local and state governments and to the civic community in evaluating, adopting, and implementing measures designed to preserve the region's investment in its communities and its environmental resources.

Comments or questions concerning this statement may be directed to Jim Ford, NIPC's Assistant Director, at 222 South Riverside Plaza, Suite 1800, Chicago IL 60606 or by FAX to 312-454-0411.

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